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遼中地區礦業城市生態承載力分析與預測
摘要： 遼中地區礦業城市是我國重要的能源生產和重工業基地,研究其生態承載力狀況并預測其發展趨勢,有利于區域經濟、生態協調發展.基于資源保障率、環境承載力和社會經濟增長相統一的原則,運用系統動力學方法建立了遼中地區礦業城市生態承載力評價模型,評價了1997-2006年研究區生態承載力狀況,預測了2006-2020年研究區生態承載力變化趨勢.結果表明:1997-2006年,遼中地區礦業城市生態承載力總體處于超載狀態,但發展趨勢差別顯著.鞍山生態承載力指數從1.686下降到1.301,年均下降2.56%,但仍處于超載狀態;撫順生態承載力指數從1.169下降到0.909,年均下降2.49%,生態承載力從超載變為盈余;本溪生態承載力指數從1.070上升到1.249,年均上升1.56%,超載程度不斷加大.2006-2020年,遼中地區礦業城市生態承載力總體上處于超載程度加大的趨勢,鞍山、撫順和本溪生態承載力指數年均增長率分別達到0.89%、1.56%和1.81%.作為礦業城市,鞍山、撫順和本溪需要優先保障水資源和能源的供需平衡.改善水環境質量,從而達到生態承載力的提高. Abstract： The mining cities in central Liaoning region are the important energy production and heavy industrial base of China, and the study on the ecological carrying capacity status (ECC) and the prediction of the developing trend in these areas are of great significant to the harmonious de-velopment between economy and ecology. Based on the unity of resources ensurence rate, environ-mental carrying capacity and socio-economic growth principle, the ECC model of the mining cities in central Liaoning region was established by system dynamics approach. The ECC status of the study region was evaluated through 1997 to 2006, and the developing trend for 2006-2020 was predicted. Results showed that: from 1997 to 2006, the ECC of the mining cities in central Liaon-ing region was overloaded in general, but the developing trend was regional specific. The ECC in-dex of Anshan changed from 1.686 to 1.301, and averagely decreased by 2.56% per year, but the ECC was still overloaded. The ECC index of Fushun changed from 1.169 to 0.909, and averagely decreased by 2.49% per year, the ECC status changed from overload to surplus. The ECC index of Benxi elevated from 1.070 to 1.249, and averagely increased by 1.56% per year, the overloading extent was increasing constantly. Generally, from 2006 to 2020, the ECC of central Liaoning re-gion was overloaded, of which the overloaded extent was increasing constantly, and the average in-crease rate of the ECC index per year for Anshan, Fushun and Benxi were 0.89%, 1.56% and 1.81%, respectively. In conclusion, as mining cities, Anshan, Fushun and Benxi should give prior-ities to the ensuring of water resource and energy resource supply, and improve the ecological car-rying capacity. 作 者： 顧康康 劉景雙 王洋 GU Kangkang LIU Jingshuang WANG Yang 作者單位： 顧康康,GU Kangkang(安徽建筑工業學院建筑與規劃學院,合肥,230022;中國科學院東北地理與農業生態研究所,長春,130012)劉景雙,王洋,LIU Jingshuang,WANG Yang(中國科學院東北地理與農業生態研究所,長春,130012)
期 刊： 地理科學進展 ISTICPKU Journal： PROGRESS IN GEOGRAPHY 年，卷(期)： 2009, 28(6) 分類號： X1 關鍵詞： 資源保障率 環境承載力 社會經濟發展 系統動力學 預測 礦業城市 Keywords： resources ensurence rate environment carrying capacity socio-economic growth system dynamics approach prediction mining cities【遼中地區礦業城市生態承載力分析與預測】相關文章：
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