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考研名師英語解析 油價與經濟
Could the bad old days of economic decline be about to return? Since OPEC agreed to supply-cuts in March, the price of crude oil has jumped to almost $26 a barrel, up from less than $10 last December. This near-tripling of oil prices calls up scary memories of the 1973 oil shock, when prices quadrupled, and 1979-1980, when they also almost tripled. Both previous shocks resulted in double-digit inflation and global economic decline. So where are the headlines warning of gloom and doom this time?The oil price was given another push up this week when Iraq suspended oil exports. Strengthening economic growth, at the same time as winter grips the northern hemisphere, could push the price higher still in the short term.
Yet there are good reasons to expect the economic consequences now to be less severe than in the 1970s. In most countries the cost of crude oil now accounts for a smaller share of the price of petrol than it did in the 1970s. In Europe, taxes account for up to four-fifths of the retail price, so even quite big changes in the price of crude have a more muted effect on pump prices than in the past.
Rich economies are also less dependent on oil than they were, and so less sensitive to swings in the oil price. Energy conservation, a shift to other fuels and a decline in the importance of heavy, energy-intensive industries have reduced oil consumption. Software, consultancy and mobile telephones use far less oil than steel or car production. For each dollar of GDP (inconstant prices) rich economies now use nearly 50% less oil than in 1973. The OECD estimates in its latest Economic Outlook that, if oil prices averaged $22 a barrel for a full year, compared with $13 in 1998, this would increase the oil import bill in rich economies by only 0.25-0.5% of GDP. That is less than one-quarter of the income loss in 1974 or 1980. On the other hand, oil-importing emerging economies—to which heavy industry has shifted—have become more energy-intensive, and so could be more seriously squeezed.
One more reason not to lose sleep over the rise in oil prices is that, unlike the rises in the 1970s, it has not occurred against the background of general commodity-price inflation and global excess demand. A sizable portion of the world is only just emerging from economic decline. The Economist's commodity price index is broadly unchanging from a year ago. In 1973 commodity prices jumped by 70%, and in 1979 by almost 30%.
31. The main reason for the latest rise of oil price is
[A]global inflation. [B]reduction in supply.
[C]fast growth in economy. [D]Iraq's suspension of exports.
32. It can be inferred from the text that the retail price of petrol will go up dramatically if
[A]price of crude rises. [B]commodity prices rise.
[C]consumption rises. [D]oil taxes rise.
33. The estimates in Economic Outlook show that in rich countries
[A]heavy industry becomes more energy-intensive.
[B]income loss mainly results from fluctuating crude oil prices.
[C]manufacturing industry has been seriously squeezed.
[D]oil price changes have no significant impact on GDP.
34. We can draw a conclusion from the text that
[A]oil-price shocks are less shocking now.
[B]inflation seems irrelevant to oil-price shocks.
[C]energy conservation can keep down the oil prices.
[D]the price rise of crude leads to the shrinking of heavy industry.
35. From the text we can see that the writer seems
[A]optimistic. [B]sensitive. [C]gloomy. [D]scared.
名師解析
31. The main reason for the latest rise of oil price is 最近的油價上漲的主要原因是
[A]global inflation. 全球通貨膨脹。
[B]reduction in supply.供應量減少。
[C]fast growth in economy. 快速的經濟增長。
[D]Iraq's suspension of exports. 伊拉克暫時停止石油出口。
【答案】 B
【考點】 事實細節題。
【分析】 根據題干可以定位到第一段的第二句話“Since OPEC agreed to supply-cuts in March, the price of crude oil has jumped to almost $26 a barrel, up from less than $10 last December.”，說明由于石油輸出國決定降低供給量，使得油價上升。所以本題的答案是[B]。[D]不是該現象的主要原因，因為“OPEC”的相關決定才是能夠影響石油價格的走勢的主要原因。
32. It can be inferred from the text that the retail price of petrol will go up dramatically if
從文中可以推斷出，如果________，汽油的零售價格將會劇烈上升。
[A]price of crude rises. 原油價格上升。
[B]commodity prices rise. 日用品價格上升。
[C]consumption rises. 消費上升。
[D]oil taxes rise. 油稅上升。
【答案】 D
【考點】 推斷題。
【分析】 根據題干可以定位到第三段的第三句話“In Europe, taxes account for up to four-fifths of the retail price，so even quite big changes in the price of crude have a more muted effect on pump prices than in the past..”意思是說“在歐洲，稅占汽油的零售價的五分之四，因此相比以往，原油的價格變化對汽油的影響不會很明顯”。也就是說稅的增加會導致汽油價格的猛漲，而原油價格的變化帶來的影響不會很大。本題一個理解的難度是“muted effect”，另外一個是“pump price”�！癿ute”表示“啞巴的，無聲的，沉默的”，和“effect”連用，表示“影響不明顯”；而“pump price”是一個很形象的說法，“pump”指的是“泵”，這里很形象用“pump”指代“汽油”。根據上述分析，可以得出答案是[D]。
33. The estimates in Economic Outlook show that in rich countries
《經濟展望》的評估表明在富國
[A] heavy industry becomes more energy-intensive.
重工業變得更加能源密集型。
[B] income loss mainly results from fluctuating crude oil prices.
收入損失主要由于波動的原油價格造成。
[C] manufacturing industry has been seriously squeezed.
制造業面臨嚴重影響。
[D] oil price changes have no significant impact on GDP.
油價變化對國民生產總值沒有大的影響。
【答案】 D
【考點】 推斷題。
【分析】 根據本題的關鍵詞“《經濟展望》的估計”可以定位到“The OECD estimates in its latest Economic outlook that, if oil prices averaged $22 a barrel for a full year, compared with $13 in 1998, this would increase the oil import bill in rich economies by only 0.25%-0.5% of GDP.”。也就是說，油價的上漲對GDP 的影響很小，只有“0.25%—0.5%”。因此我們可以得出答案[D]。
34. We can draw a conclusion from the text that 從文中我們可以得出的結論是
[A] oil-price shocks are less shocking now. 油價沖擊已經不再那么駭人聽聞。
[B] inflation seems irrelevant to oil-price shocks. 通貨膨脹看起來和油價沖擊無關。
[C] energy conservation can keep down the oil prices. 能源儲備能夠使油價下降。
[D] the price rise of crude leads to the shrinking of heavy industry.
原油價格的上升導致重工業的萎縮。
【答案】 A
【考點】 文章主旨題。
【分析】 本題的幾個選項需要通篇理解。文章第三段指出“油價的經濟影響不會那么嚴重”，作者指出其原因是“原油價格占汽油價格的比例不高，發達國家對石油的依賴減弱，此次漲價的背景不一樣了”。文章最后一段說“這次油價上漲與20世紀70年代的上漲不同，對各國的影響也基本沒有反映出來，連物價基本都沒有變動”，也就是說，油價沖擊已經不是那么可怕。所以答案是[A]。
35. From the text we can see that the writer seems 從本文中我們可以看出作者看上去是
[A] optimistic. 樂觀的。 [B] sensitive.敏感的。
[C] gloomy. 沮喪的。 [D] scared.恐懼的。
【答案】 A
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